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结合“三个1亿人”问题,城镇化对农产品消费的影响主要有4个渠道,分别为农民工“市民化”、市民“再城镇化”、农民“非农化”和农民消费“城镇化”。综合4个影响渠道,预计到2020年,城镇化的推进将减少粮食口粮消费579.29万t,分别增加猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、蔬菜和瓜果消费148.8万t、28.3万t、6.9万t、595.4万t和446.47万t。但与2013年相比,因城镇化推进而增加的各种农产品消费量占总产量的比重不大,不会对粮食安全产生明显影响。
In combination with the “three 100 million people” issue, there are mainly four channels of urbanization’s impact on the consumption of agricultural products: migrant workers, citizenship, citizens, re-urbanization, peasants, non-agricultural “And peasant consumption ” urbanization ". Based on the four influential channels, it is estimated that by 2020, the urbanization will reduce the consumption of grain rations by 5,792,900 tons and increase the consumption of pork, beef, mutton, vegetables and fruits by 1,488,000 tons, 283,000 tons, 69,000 tons and 595.4 yuan respectively Million t and 446.47 million t. However, compared with 2013, the increase in urbanization due to the increase in the consumption of various agricultural products in the proportion of total output is not large, will not have a significant impact on food security.