经济增长应从需求和供给两个方面进行分析。供给面包括劳动力、资本、全要素生产率,需求面包括消费、投资、净出口。过去十几年,中国人口红利和劳动力转移同时发生。在人口红利阶段,房地产泡沫形成,货币与信用扩张。如果人口结构发生变化,未来中国经济可能会遭遇供给不足与需求不足的风险。目前中国已经出现信用大周期拐点的迹象:银行惜贷情绪上升,外汇资产配置失衡形成资金流出压力。为了应对未来十年经济增长面临的挑战,建议在以下几个领域进行改革:第一,降低垄断,为民间资本发展提供更多准入机会;第二,在收入分配、社会保障和财税等分配领域实施制度改革,降低分配差距;第三,进一步推动城镇化;第四,通过金融改革提高资金配置效率、化解金融风险;第五,放松计划生育政策。 Economic growth should be analyzed from the two aspects of demand and supply. The supply side includes labor, capital and total factor productivity. The demand side includes consumption, investment and net exports. Over the past decade or so, China’s demographic dividend and labor transfer have taken place simultaneously. In the demographic dividend phase, the real estate bubble formed, and the credit and credit expansion. If the population structure changes, China’s economy may face the risk of insufficient supply and insufficient demand in the future. At present, China has seen signs of a turning point in the credit cycle: banks’ looting loans have risen and imbalanced allocation of foreign exchange assets has created pressure on capital outflows. In order to meet the challenges of economic growth in the next decade, it is proposed to carry out reforms in the following areas: first, to reduce monopoly and provide more access to non-governmental capital; secondly, in the distribution of income, social security and taxation, etc. Third, to further promote urbanization; Fourth, through financial reform to improve the efficiency of capital allocation, to resolve financial risks; Fifth, to relax the family planning policy.