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本文以2012年一月进出口“双降”的现实情况为出发点,对1979—2010年进口额与出口额的年度数据进行协整分析,建立误差修正模型、并对进口与出口做了相关的Granger因果关系检验。证明进口与出口之间存在长期的均衡关系,并且进口对出口有推动影响作用。最后在文末提出了关于改善进出口不均衡发展的现状的建议。
Based on the actual situation of import and export “double drop” in January 2012, this paper conducts cointegration analysis on the annual data of imports and exports from 1979 to 2010, establishes the error correction model, and imports and exports Related Granger causality test. It is proved that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between import and export, and that import plays a facilitating role in export. Finally, at the end of this article, we put forward suggestions on how to improve the unbalanced development of import and export.