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近年来中国经济增速放缓,但就业形势稳中有进。利用1978~2015年的时间序列数据组,引入中介效应和渠道机制检验的实证分析,对中国经济、“产业—就业结构”与就业之间的联动机制进行研究,在此基础上针对当前经济与就业的变动态势给予解答。研究发现:“产业—就业结构”变动是经济和就业之间的中介变量和主要作用渠道,可以调节经济对就业产生的影响;而产业结构仅是影响就业的因素之一,并不是经济和就业之间的中介变量。近几年,虽然中国经济增速放缓,但经济总量依旧较大,对就业仍有拉动力。产业结构和就业结构的同时改善支持和加大了这种拉动,而这仅靠产业结构的变动还远远不够。同时,积极的就业政策和经济体制改革也是就业形势良好的推动器。
In recent years, China’s economic growth has slowed down, but the employment situation has progressed steadily. Using the time-series data set from 1978 to 2015, we introduce the empirical analysis of the intermediary effect and the channel mechanism test to study the linkage mechanism between China’s economy, “industry-employment structure” and employment, and on the basis of this, Economic and employment changes to give answers to the situation. The findings are as follows: The change of “industry-employment structure” is the intermediary variable between economy and employment and the main channel of influence, which can regulate the impact of economy on employment. However, the industrial structure is only one of the factors affecting employment and not the economy And employment between the intermediary variables. In recent years, although the economic growth of China has slowed down, the total economic output is still large, and there is still a driving force behind employment. The simultaneous improvement of both industrial and employment structures supported and intensified this pull, which is far from enough to rely solely on changes in the industrial structure. At the same time, active employment policies and economic restructuring are also good catalysts for the employment situation.