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目的了解乌鲁木齐市A群流脑疫苗接种的时间趋势、季节接种变化,为A群流脑疫苗的计划制定、管理、分配提供数据支持。方法使用2009年1月~2015年7月每月常规接种率监测报表数据,收集A群流脑疫苗的实种数量,使用SPSS 21.0进行统计分析。结果 A群流脑疫苗第1剂次的接种与年份的相关系数为0.989,第2剂次的接种与年份的相关系数为0.974,P均<0.05。A群流脑疫苗接种第1剂次模型R2=0.789,Ljung-Box Q(18)=24.786,P=0.153;第2剂次模型R2=0.802,Ljung-Box Q(18)=24.070,P=0.164。使用2015年7~10月数据验证模型预测值,结果显示实种数与预测值经配对t检验之后,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。A群流脑疫苗第1剂次与第2剂次接种规律基本类似,每年2月接种数量最少,5~8月接种数量最多,9~10月减少,但在11~12月存在全年的第2次接种高峰。结论乌鲁木齐市A群流脑疫苗的接种时间序列模型可以较好地预测每月接种数量,可以考虑应用该预测模型加强A群疫苗的接种计划,减少不必要的疫苗报损。
Objective To understand the time trend and seasonal inoculation of group A meningitis vaccine in Urumqi and provide data support for the planning, management and distribution of group A meningitis vaccine. Methods The monthly routine vaccination rate monitoring report data from January 2009 to July 2015 were collected and the actual number of meningococcal vaccine of group A was collected and analyzed by SPSS 21.0. Results The correlation coefficient between the first dose of group A meningitis vaccine and the year was 0.989, the correlation coefficient between the second dose of inoculation and the year was 0.974, P <0.05. The first dose of group A meningitis vaccine was R2 = 0.789, Ljung-Box Q (18) = 24.786, P = 0.153, the second dose R2 = 0.802, Ljung- 0.164. The data from July to October in 2015 were used to verify the model predictive value. The results showed that there was no significant difference between the actual number of species and the predicted value after paired t-test (P> 0.05). Group A meningitis vaccine doses 1 and 2 were similar inoculation, the amount of vaccination in February each year the least, from May to August the largest number of vaccination, 9 to 10 months to reduce, but in 11 to December there is a year The second vaccination peak. Conclusion The vaccination time series model of meningococcal A group vaccine in Urumqi can predict the monthly vaccination quantity well. Consider using this prediction model to strengthen the vaccination plan of group A vaccine and reduce the unnecessary vaccine damage.