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价格是经济运行状况的晴雨表和资源配置的风向标,近几年,我国价格总水平持续高位运行,其中,作为主要价格之一的工业生产者价格波动明显。为探究其深层原因,本文利用1989年-2011年工业生产者价格内部各指数数据,运用协整和Granger因果关系检验等分析方法分析各指数之间关系,研究工业生产者价格内部几种指数之间是否存在长期稳定的均衡关系,判断是谁引起了谁发生变动,然后采用1989年-2011年工业生产者价格各指数数据及2012年1-9月数据进行验证,最后提出几点意见建议。
Prices are the barometer of economic performance and the benchmark for resource allocation. In recent years, the general price level in our country has continued to run at high levels. Among them, the price of industrial producers, as one of the major prices, has fluctuated significantly. In order to explore its underlying causes, this paper analyzes the relationship among various indices by means of cointegration and Granger causality test among various index data of industrial producer prices from 1989 to 2011, and researches the index of several indices within the price of industrial producers Whether there is a long-term, stable and balanced relationship among them, determine who caused the change, and then use the 1989-2011 industrial producer price index data and January-September 2012 data for verification. Finally, some opinions and suggestions are put forward.