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基于金沙江流域内1960-2004年的水文、气象站观测数据,分析了区域内径流量的年际、年代际变化以及气候因素(如降水量、平均气温)对径流变化的影响.结果表明:近40a来径流量呈现逐渐增加趋势,并且支流雅砻江为金沙江径流量的主要产流区;干流与支流均存在年代间丰枯转移,20世纪60年代、90年代偏丰,70年代偏枯;干流夏半年产流量稍微大于支流,支流冬半年产流量明显大于干流;M-K检验揭示出在1966年和1997年前后存在显著突变现象.金沙江流域1970年代处于少雨阶段,其他年代均为多雨阶段;1960-1970年代处于低温阶段,1980年代后为高温阶段,降水量、气温的增加均以2000年后较为突出.年降水量,尤其是上游地区年降水量极大地影响着年径流量的变化,春季径流量不仅受同期降水量和温度(负相关)影响,还与前期气温存在正相关;夏季径流量受同期和前期降水量的影响;秋季径流量受同期降水量和前期降水量、气温(负相关)的共同影响;冬季径流量受同期气温(正相关)及前期降水量的影响.
Based on the observed data of hydrological and meteorological stations in the Jinsha River basin from 1960 to 2004, the interannual and interdecadal variations of runoff in the region and the effects of climatic factors (such as precipitation and average temperature) on runoff were analyzed. The results show that near 40a to runoff showed a gradual increase trend, and the tributary of the Yalong River Jinsha River runoff as the main runoff area; the main stream and tributaries are there Fengshui transfer between the 1960s, 1990s, 70s, The annual runoff in the main stream in summer was slightly larger than that in the tributaries, and the runoff in the tributaries was obviously greater than that in the main stream in the first half of the year. The MK test revealed significant abrupt changes in 1966 and around 1997. The Jinsha River basin was in a period of less rainfall in the 1970s and wetter in other ages. The 1960-1970s were in the low temperature stage and the high temperature stage after 1980s, with the increase of precipitation and temperature more prominent after 2000. Annual precipitation, especially the annual precipitation in the upper reaches, greatly affected the annual runoff changes, Spring runoff is not only affected by the same period of precipitation and temperature (negative correlation), but also positively correlated with the previous temperature. The summer runoff is affected by the same period and the previous precipitation Runoff and precipitation over the same period by the combined effect early precipitation, temperature (negative correlation); and winter runoff affected the same period temperatures (positive correlation) and pre-precipitation.