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利用巴楚国家基本气候站1961—2013年53 a的气温、降水量等资料,结合1981—2013年的棉花发育期、单位面积产量,采用线性倾向估计计算、检验方法、气候趋势系数和气候倾向率方法,对1961年以来巴楚气候变化特征、1981年以来棉花发育期、产量进行分析,探讨了巴楚近期气候变化对棉花生产的影响。结果表明:近53 a来,巴楚年和各季平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温总体呈线性上升趋势,其中年平均最低气温的升温率最明显;各季节中春、秋季平均最低气温的升温率最大;年、各季节降水量呈明显的增多趋势,季节中夏季降水量的增幅最大,为3.25 mm/10 a;初霜日的变化呈推后趋势(1.2 d/10 a)、而终霜日呈提前趋势(-2.4d/10 a),使无霜期明显延长(1.1 d/10 a)。近33 a来,巴楚县棉花各发育期均表现出不同程度的提前趋势,其中现蕾期的提前趋势最明显,为4.8 d/10 a(P<0.01);棉花停止生长期呈延迟趋势,延迟幅度为3.7 d/10 a(P<0.01)。初、终霜冻日、无霜期与棉花产量总体呈正相关,初霜日推后、终霜日提前、无霜期延长,棉花产量增多。
Based on the data of air temperature and precipitation at 53 a of Bachu National Basic Climate Station from 1961 to 2013 and the cotton yield per unit area from 1981 to 2013, linear propensity estimation and calculation, test methods, climatic trend coefficients and climate trends Rate method, the characteristics of climate change in Bachu since 1961, cotton development since 1981, and yield were analyzed to discuss the impact of recent climate change on cotton production in Bachu. The results showed that in the past 53 years, the annual mean temperature, mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature of Bachu generally showed a linear upward trend, of which the annual mean minimum temperature had the most obvious warming rate. The mean minimum temperature in mid-spring and autumn The maximum temperature increase rate was 3.25 mm / 10 a in summer and the trend of the first frost day was postponed (1.2 d / 10 a) While the final frost day showed an earlier trend (-2.4d / 10 a), so frost-free period was significantly prolonged (1.1 d / 10 a). In the past 33 years, cotton in Bachu county showed different degrees of advancement in all developmental stages, of which the budding stage was the most obvious in advance (4.8 d / 10 a) (P <0.01) , With a delay of 3.7 d / 10 a (P <0.01). The initial and final frost days, frost-free period and the cotton yield was positively correlated, the initial frost day, the final frost date, frost-free period, increased cotton production.