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虽然日本对海外原油高度依赖,但在近30年的油价波动中并未显现严重的经济震荡。针对该现象,通过对日本GDP、国民经济核算支出法五部门以及特色行业的三层次递进分析尝试进行经济学解释,发现:1985年之前,日本经济尚符合油价上涨时GDP下降的典型特征;1986—2010年,油价上涨未给消费部门带来显著效应,却给投资以及出口部门带来正效应,由于消费部门的GDP占比下降,投资与出口部门的占比上升,最终造成GDP未发生明显震荡的结果。深入至汽车产业,油价上涨后日本的汽车出口显著增加,这是导致出口部门正效应的一个重要来源。合理的经济增长结构以及产品的低能耗特点是日本经济抵御油价冲击的重要支撑,而深层次原因在于日本能源供应结构的优化与充足的原油储备。
Although Japan is highly dependent on overseas crude oil, it has not experienced serious economic turmoil in the fluctuation of oil prices in the past 30 years. In view of this phenomenon, through the three-level progressive analysis of Japan’s GDP, the five branches of the National Accounting Expenditure Law and the characteristic industries, it is found that: Before 1985, the Japanese economy still meets the typical characteristics of the GDP declining when the oil price rises; In 1986-2010, the rise in oil prices did not bring significant effects to the consumer sector, but brought positive effects to the investment and export sectors. Due to the declining share of GDP in the consumer sector and the rising share of investment and export sectors, GDP eventually did not occur Obvious shock results. Deep into the automotive industry, Japan’s auto exports have risen significantly following the rise in oil prices, which is an important source of positive effects on the export sector. Reasonable structure of economic growth and low energy consumption of products is an important support for the Japanese economy to withstand the impact of oil price. The deeper reason lies in the optimization of Japan’s energy supply structure and sufficient reserves of crude oil.