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海底地震引发的海啸灾害,对沿海国家和地区的影响是相关领域的研究热点。研究采用COMCOT海啸数值模拟模型,对可能发生在马尼拉海沟一次地震活动(Mw=9.0级)所引起的海啸过程进行了数值模拟,并研究了该海啸传播到海南岛和北部湾的过程及其特点,分析海啸波对这一地区可能造成的影响。研究发现,传播到北部湾地区的海啸波具有明显的非线性特征,海啸发生后2 h 10 min左右到达海南岛东海岸,首轮波高达2.1 m;随着湾内水深逐渐变浅,受制于海底摩阻,及海南岛的阻隔与缓冲作用,海啸到达广西壮族自治区南部沿海地区的时间,被推迟到距地震发生8 h后,海啸波高减小到0.4 m,海啸波能量大为衰减。研究结果表明,马尼拉海沟地震引发海啸,对海南岛东南部沿海影响较大,有成灾的可能性;而对广西壮族自治区南部沿海及北部湾地区的影响较弱,一般不会造成大的灾害。
The tsunami disaster caused by the seabed earthquake and its impact on the coastal countries and regions are the hot topics in related fields. The numerical simulation model of the tsunami of the COMCOT was used to simulate the tsunami caused by a seismic activity (Mw = 9.0) possibly occurring in the Manila Trench. The tsunami propagation to Hainan Island and Beibu Gulf was studied and its characteristics , To analyze the possible impact of the tsunami wave on this area. The study found that tsunami waves propagating to the Beibu Gulf area have obvious non-linear characteristics. The tsunami waves reached the east coast of Hainan Island within about 2 h 10 min after the tsunami with a wave height of 2.1 m in the first round. As the water depth in the bay gradually becomes lighter, Friction, and barrier and cushioning effect of Hainan Island. When the tsunami reached the southern coastal area of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, the time of arrival of the tsunami was reduced to 0.4 m after 8 h of the earthquake and the energy of the tsunami wave greatly attenuated. The results show that the tsunamis triggered by the Manila trench earthquake have a greater impact on coastal areas of southeastern Hainan Island and have the potential of causing disasters. However, the impact on the southern coastal areas and the Beibu Gulf of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is relatively weak and generally does not cause serious disasters .