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一、引言随着国内外宏观经济形势的日益复杂和各国金融体系、货币操作环境的不断演进,货币流动性的稳定性(过剩或不足)已经成为宏观经济领域最引人注目的问题之一。对货币流动性的关注和监测早已是各国中央银行的主要任务。欧洲中央银行、美联储、英格兰银行、新西兰、加拿大、澳大利亚、瑞典中央银行都会定期公布货币供应总量或货币增长率等货币流动性指标。作为我国中央银行,中国人民银行每年要设立广义货币供应量增长目标,并作为总量调控的重要内容,尤其是在流动性过剩的突出年份,更要看紧M_2的季度和年度增长率。最近,显著过剩的流动性已经成为当前我国宏观经济决策的重大挑战,中国人民银行运
I. INTRODUCTION With the increasingly complicated domestic and international macroeconomic situations and the continuous evolution of the financial system and monetary operating environment in various countries, the stability (excess or deficiency) of monetary liquidity has become one of the most conspicuous problems in the macroeconomic field. The focus and monitoring of currency liquidity has long been the central task of national central banks. The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, New Zealand, Canada, Australia and the Central Bank of Sweden all regularly announce monetary liquidity indicators such as the total money supply or the rate of money growth. As China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China sets a goal of increasing the broad money supply every year, and as an important part of total regulation and control, especially in the prominent year with excess liquidity, we must also look at the quarterly and annual growth rates of M_2. Recently, a marked excess liquidity has become a major challenge to China’s macroeconomic policy-making. The People’s Bank of China