2015年初以来国际原油市场风起云涌,4月份起底反弹,涨幅超过20%,市场对美国原油供给减少的预期、美联储延迟加息使美元走软是支撑此轮油价大反弹的主要因素。从长期来看,原油价格近期的上涨更可能是短期行为,原油尚未转入牛市周期,今年有较大概率在50-75美元/桶之间波动。 Since the beginning of 2015, the international crude oil market surged and rebounded at the end of April, up more than 20%. The market is anticipating the reduction of the U.S. crude oil supply and the delay of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to make the US dollar weak is the main factor supporting the large rally in oil prices. In the long run, the recent rally in crude oil prices is more likely to be short-term and crude oil has not yet moved into a bullish cycle with a higher probability of fluctuating between $ 50 and $ 75 / bbl this year.