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利用SWAT分布式水文模型模拟分析1996~2015年过去20 a及2020~2079年未来60 a长期气候变化背景下涟水流域蓝水绿水资源的时空分布变化特征。将气候变化划分为1996~2015年、2020~2049年、2050~2079年三段气象背景时期,选用Had GEM2-AO大气模式的RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6、RCP8.5四种典型浓度路径作为未来时期的气象输入条件,并细分为9种气候变化情景。运用PSO粒子群优化算法,以KGE克林效率系数为目标函数,采用湘乡站实测径流量及MOD16蒸散发数据并行校准模型参数,通过p-factor、r-factor、R2、NSE和PBIAS评价模型模拟效果和不确定性,评价结果表明校准期及验证期蓝水绿水模拟均达到可信程度。情景分析结果表明,对比1996~2015年、2020~2049年、2050~2079年三段气候背景时期,在各RCP浓度路径下蓝水均呈现了不同程度的下降趋势,大约降低了1.4%~17.3%,绿水流均表现出一定的上升趋势,约增长3.5%~12.4%,绿水蓄量则在持续降低,大致下降了7.8%~19.7%,即使将95PPU模拟不确定性范围考虑进来,绿水流的增长趋势也较为明显。因此,将绿水资源纳入涟水流域未来水资源评价体系,实现蓝水绿水综合规划管理具有实际意义。
SWAT distributed hydrological model was used to simulate the temporal and spatial distribution of blue water green water in Lianshui watershed from 1996 to 2015 over the past 20 years and 2020 to 2079 in the future 60 years of long-term climate change. The climate change is divided into four typical concentrations (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, RCP8.5) of Had GEM2-AO atmospheric model in the meteorological background period of 1996-2015, 2020-2049 and 2050-2079. Path as a meteorological input conditions for the future, and is divided into nine kinds of climate change scenarios. Using PSO particle swarm optimization algorithm and KGE efficiency factor as the objective function, the parameters of p-factor, r-factor, R2, NSE and PBIAS were used to measure the runoff and MOD16 evapotranspiration data of Xiangxiang station. Simulation results and uncertainty, the evaluation results show that the blue-green water simulation of the calibration period and verification period have reached a credible level. The results of scenario analysis show that compared with the three climatic periods from 1996 to 2015, from 2020 to 2049 and from 2050 to 2079, the blue water under the RCP concentration paths shows a downward trend to some extent, which is about 1.4% to 17.3 % And green water flow all showed a certain upward trend, with an increase of about 3.5% ~ 12.4% and a decrease of about 7.8% ~ 19.7% of green water storage. Even taking into account the 95PPU simulation uncertainty range, green The trend of water flow is also more obvious. Therefore, it is of practical significance to include green water resources in the future water resources assessment system of Lianshui River Basin and to realize the integrated planning and management of blue water green water.