论文部分内容阅读
目的探索早期异常报告系统(the early aberration reporting system,EARS)在手足口病聚集性探测和早期预警中的应用。方法采用EARS中不依赖历史资料的C1、C2和C3三种方法对北京市顺义区2010年手足口病例数据进行分析预警。结果 C1方法发出手足口病聚集性预警4次;C2和C3方法发出手足口病聚集性预警8次。C1预警期间顺义区共报告聚集性疫情28起,C1方法的灵敏度为65.12%,特异度为100.00%;C2和C3预警期间顺义区共报告聚集性疫情40起,C2和C3方法的灵敏度为93.02%,特异度为100.00%。对2011年手足口病数据分析可知,C2和C3两种方法能早期探测到手足口病的聚集性和暴发。结论利用EARS中不依赖历史资料的方法建立的早期预警系统,能有效的对传染病聚集性和暴发做出早期预警。
Objective To explore the application of the early aberration reporting system (EARS) in the detection and early warning of HFMD. Methods The EARS did not rely on historical data C1, C2 and C3 three methods of Beijing Shunyi District, 2010 hand-foot-mouth case analysis and early warning data. Results C1 method issued hand-foot-mouth disease cluster alert four times; C2 and C3 method issued hand-foot-mouth disease clustering warning eight times. During the early warning period of C1, there were 28 aggregated epidemics reported in Shunyi District. The sensitivity of C1 method was 65.12% and the specificity was 100.00%. In the early warning period of C2 and C3, 40 cases of aggregated outbreaks were reported in Shunyi District, and the sensitivity of C2 and C3 methods was 93.02 %, Specificity is 100.00%. According to the data analysis of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2011, C2 and C3 two methods can detect the aggregation and outbreak of hand-foot-mouth disease in the early stage. Conclusion Early warning systems using EARS, a method that does not rely on historical data, can effectively provide early warning of infectious disease outbreaks and outbreaks.