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自2005年人民币汇率制度形成机制改革以后,人民币汇率的长期升值趋势将进一步对我国以加工贸易为主的国际贸易产生影响。本文运用ADF检验和建立回归模型等计量经济学方法对1981-2010年的人民币实际汇率与加工贸易进出口的关系进行实证研究。得出的结论是:人民币实际汇率升值会降低加工贸易进口、出口的增长,对此文章给出合理的解释。
Since the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime formation mechanism in 2005, the long-term appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will further affect our country’s international trade dominated by processing trade. This paper uses the ADF test and the establishment of regression models and other econometrics methods to empirical study of the relationship between real exchange rate of RMB and the import and export of processing trade from 1981 to 2010. The conclusion is: the real appreciation of RMB exchange rate will reduce the import of processing trade, export growth, this article gives a reasonable explanation.