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战后日本贸易长期顺差,它支撑了日本经济的顺利增长。2011年日本贸易收支却出现自1980年以来的首次贸易逆差。那么,日本的贸易逆差会否成为一种长期趋势,日本会成为贸易逆差国吗?作为世界第一大出口国和日本的重要贸易伙伴国,中国又会从中得到什么样的启示?这是本文关注的重点问题。针对该问题,我们以跨期迭代模型为理论基础,从日本的财政状况和人口特征角度入手,并利用1965~2013年的时间序列数据进行了实证检验。结果显示:第一,政府预算差额对日本经常项目差额有显著的正向作用;第二,少儿抚养比对日本经常项目差额有显著的正向作用,老年抚养比对日本经常项目差额有显著的负向作用,而且老年抚养比比少儿抚养比的作用更为明显;第三,日本财政赤字的不断攀升和少子老龄化的持续发展,带来了日本总储蓄率的不断下降和海外净资产的持续上升,这一降一升意味着日本的贸易逆差可能会成为一种趋势,日本有迈入逆差国的内在因素。本文的结论对于中国也有相当的借鉴意义。
The long-term trade surplus of Japan after the war underpinned the smooth growth of Japan’s economy. Japan’s trade balance in 2011 showed its first trade deficit since 1980. So, Japan’s trade deficit will become a long-term trend, Japan will become a trade deficit it? As the world’s largest exporter and Japan’s important trading partner countries, China will get what kind of enlightenment? This is the article Focus on the issue. In order to solve this problem, based on the intertemporal iteration model, we start with the perspective of Japan’s financial status and population characteristics, and use the time series data from 1965 to 2013 to conduct empirical tests. The results show that: First, the budget balance of the government has a significant positive effect on the current account balance of Japan; second, the dependency ratio of children shows a significant positive effect on the current account balance of Japan; the dependency ratio of the elderly on Japan’s current account balance shows significant differences Thirdly, the continuous rise of Japan’s budget deficit and the declining birth rate of aging children lead to the continuous decline of Japan’s total savings rate and the continuous growth of overseas net assets This drop means that Japan’s trade deficit may become a trend and Japan has an inherent factor of entering the deficit country. The conclusion of this article is also of considerable reference to China.