根据流域气候特征及年内首末两场洪水的来水规律 ,挑选出与预报对象关系最密切的气象因子作为预报因子 ,首先研究趋势预报 ,然后应用逐步判别法筛选因子 ,最后建立预报模型 .研究发现 ,前期的月平均降水、月平均气温、月平均北太平洋海温因子是影响水口流域首末两场洪水的主要气象因子 . According to the climatic characteristics of the watershed and the law of incoming water during the first two floods in the year, we select the meteorological factors that are most closely related to the forecast objects as the forecasting factors, first of all, study the trend forecast, and then use the stepwise discriminant to select the factors and finally establish the forecasting model. It is found that the monthly average precipitation, monthly average temperature and monthly average SSTA in the early period are the main meteorological factors that affect the first two floods in Shuikou watershed.