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基于提高管网模型及其应用的精度要求,有必要对用水模式的不确定性进行分析和度量。从实践经验和理论计算相结合的角度提出给水管网用户用水模式分析的流程和方法,即数据采集方案设计、采集数据标准化处理、用水模式系数概率密度分布拟合、参数最大似然估计、用户用水模式不确定性度量和表达。在用户用水模式分析流程中,在预算约束下减小采样不确定性,自动去除采集数据中的奇异数据,并对所采集数据的不确定性特征做出度量,取得了满意结果。
Based on improving the accuracy of pipe network model and its application, it is necessary to analyze and measure the uncertainty of water consumption model. Based on the combination of practical experience and theoretical calculation, this paper puts forward the flow and method of water user analysis for water supply network users: data acquisition scheme design, standardization of collected data, fitting of probability density distribution of water pattern coefficients, maximum likelihood estimation of parameters, Uncertainty of water use measurement and expression. In the process of user water pattern analysis, the sampling uncertainty is reduced under the budget constraint, the singular data in the collected data is automatically removed, and the uncertainty characteristics of the collected data are measured, and satisfactory results are obtained.