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入库流量的准确预测是水电站发电的基础。针对大型水库入库流量的不确定性,提出对水电站入库流量的随机模拟方法。将入库流量看成是一个随机过程,采用逐步回归与自回归综合方法对入库流量时间序列趋势项、周期项、平稳项进行了分析,并增加随机项来描述入库流量的随机变化。以广西某个水电站为实例进行了计算分析,通过与历史真实数据进行对比,验证得到采用逐步回归与自回归组合模型模拟随机入库流量序列具有较高的拟合度和可行性。
The accurate prediction of the inbound flow rate is the basis of hydropower station’s power generation. According to the uncertainty of the flow of large reservoirs, a stochastic simulation method for the flow of reservoirs is proposed. Treating the incoming flow as a stochastic process, the trend, periodicity and stationary term of the incoming flow time series are analyzed by the stepwise regression and autoregressive integrated method. Stochastic terms are added to describe the random change of the incoming flow. Taking a hydropower station in Guangxi as an example, the calculation and analysis are carried out. By comparing with historical real data, it is verified that the random inbound flow series with stepwise regression model and autoregressive model have higher fitting degree and feasibility.