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随着我国市场改革开放的进一步深入,市场竞争日益激烈,房地产投资受市场不确定性因素影响更加敏感。本文首先将房地产项目的固有价值进行分解,将不确定性建立在房地产投资产品——商品房的价格之上,利用美式永续期权定价方法建立相应的旁地产企业投资决策模型。本文还对这一模型进行了数值分析,分析表明,房地产企业投资期权价值以及最比执行期权时的临界价格与其相应的商品房价格的波动率成正向相关关系。
With the further deepening of China’s market reform and opening up and the increasingly fierce market competition, real estate investment is more sensitive to market uncertainty. In this paper, the inherent value of real estate projects is decomposed first, the uncertainty is based on the real estate investment product - the price of commercial housing, and the corresponding per-property investment decision-making model is established by American sustainable option pricing method. The paper also analyzes the model numerically. The analysis shows that the value of real estate investment options is positively related to the volatility of the corresponding critical real estate prices.