论文部分内容阅读
在实体经济中房地产与诸多相关产业存在密切产业链联动机制。本文采用马尔可夫区制转换向量自回归模型(MS-VAR)来分析房地产业与相关产业(钢材、水泥、家具、家电)之间的联动机制,结果表明:房地产业对钢材业、水泥业和家具业具有明显的带动作用,带动效应可持续4个月。在整个时期内,房地产业存在三种不同的发展区制(楼市低迷期、楼市平稳发展期、楼市火爆期)。在不同区制内,房地产对相关产业的带动作用呈现出非对称性特征,在楼市低迷时期,房地产对其他产业的带动效应较为显著。
In the real economy real estate and many related industries there is a close industrial chain linkage mechanism. In this paper, we analyze the linkage mechanism between real estate and related industries (steel, cement, furniture, appliances) by Markov Regression Vector Autoregressive Model (MS-VAR). The results show that the real estate industry has a great influence on the steel industry, cement industry And the furniture industry has a clear leading role in promoting the effect of sustainable 4 months. Throughout the period, there are three different development zones in the real estate industry (downturn in property market, stable development of property market and hot property market). In different zoning systems, the driving effect of real estate on related industries shows asymmetric characteristics. In the downturn of the property market, the driving effect of real estate on other industries is significant.