2003年,世界经济能否承接并发展上年的缓慢回升的势头,是当前国际经济领域的一个重要问题。从当前情况看,各主要经济体处于缓慢增长过程中,增长动力仍旧不足,国际商品市场和金融市场动荡不息,国际经济整体上处于一个比较微妙的时期。预计全年世界经济有望继续保持一定的增长,但也存在较多不确定因素,值得我们密切关注。一、世界经济可望温和增长美国经济仍是世界经济走势的风向标。根据目前情况分析,美国经济仍未进入稳定增长的轨道。从需求的角度看,私人消费和投资增长仍表现出大幅波动的特征。个人消费支出在2002年前3季度分别增长3.1%、1.8% In 2003, whether the world economy can undertake and develop its slow recovery in the previous year is an important issue in the current international economic field. Judging from the current situation, all major economies are in a process of slow growth. Their growth momentum is still insufficient. The international commodity markets and financial markets are in turmoil. The international economy as a whole is in a relatively delicate period. It is expected that the world economy will continue to maintain some growth throughout the year, but there are still many uncertainties that deserve our close attention. I. World Economic Prospects for Moderate Growth The U.S. economy is still the benchmark for the world economy. According to the current situation analysis, the U.S. economy has not yet entered the path of steady growth. From a demand perspective, private consumption and investment growth are still characterized by large swings. Personal consumption expenditures increased by 3.1% and 1.8% respectively in the first three quarters of 2002,