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近年来,国内粮价在与国际粮价保持某种关联性的同时也有着自身的变动特征。而2008年下半年全球金融危机的爆发使得影响粮食价格波动的因素变得更加复杂化。本文将从近年来影响国内外粮价波动的因素着手,逐一分析各因素对2009年我国粮价走势的影响,并在此基础上对今年国内粮价的整体走势做出综合预测。
In recent years, domestic grain prices have their own characteristics of change while maintaining some kind of correlation with international grain prices. The outbreak of the global financial crisis in the second half of 2008 made the factors that affected the fluctuation of food prices even more complicated. This article will start from the factors affecting domestic and foreign grain price fluctuations in recent years, one by one to analyze the impact of various factors on China’s grain price in 2009, and on this basis, make a comprehensive forecast of the overall trend of domestic grain prices this year.