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为准确及时判断边坡垮塌事故的原因,研究基于贝叶斯网络不确定性推理原理的土质边坡垮塌事故诊断方法。在系统分析土质边坡垮塌原因的基础上,基于专家的先验知识构建贝叶斯网络结构。利用NETICA软件的案例分析功能分析统计数据,获得节点间的条件概率,从而建立完整的土质边坡垮塌事故分析专家系统。运用专家系统分析某土质边坡垮塌事故原因。专家系统的诊断结果与现场鉴定的结果吻合良好。贝叶斯网络专家系统可以使推理甚至在输入数据不完备的情况下进行,不仅能够应用于边坡垮塌事故分析,也可应用于边坡支护方案的比选。
In order to accurately and timely judge the cause of slope collapse accident, the method of soil slope collapse accident diagnosis based on Bayesian network uncertainty reasoning principle is studied. Based on the systematic analysis of the causes of collapse of soil slope, the Bayesian network structure is constructed based on the prior knowledge of experts. Using the case analysis function of NETICA software to analyze the statistical data and obtain the conditional probability between the nodes, so as to establish a complete expert system of soil collapse accident analysis. Using expert system to analyze the cause of collapse of a soil slope. The diagnostic results of the expert system are in good agreement with the results from the field test. Bayesian network expert system can make reasoning even when the input data is incomplete, which can not only be applied to the analysis of slope collapse accidents, but also can be applied to the comparison and selection of slope support schemes.