“黑天鹅事件”是完全不可预测的,更不可能找出他们的函数关系。唯一明智的选择就是,通过建立“反脆弱性”来从中获益,而不是受损。《反脆弱》是一本很容易引起误读的书。《黑天鹅》、《随机致富的傻瓜》更正了大部分人的决定论的或者机械论的旧世界观,但实际上,二战前后,几乎没有一个西方学科不是采取概率论和统计学的世界观了,换言之,西方在二战后,有一个世界观和方法论的革命,只是由于特殊的原因,中国没 “Black Swan Incident ” is completely unpredictable, it is even more impossible to find out their functional relationship. The only sensible choice is to benefit, not damage, by creating “anti-fragility.” “Anti-fragile” is a very easy to misread book. “Black Swan,” “Fools Who Become Rich,” correct most of the deterministic or mechanistic old world views, but in fact, almost none of the Western disciplines before and after World War II did not adopt the worldview of probability theory and statistics, In other words, after World War II, the West had a world-view and methodological revolution only because of special reasons. China did not