如果改革不触及输配分离,那么不仅成本依然难以厘清,电价也有上涨风险,更无力为电力市场长期困境解套,改革也就有中道夭折的风险。有非正式的消息表明,我国的电力改革草案将以“放开两头,监管中间”为基本的模式,并且政府不再制定发电计划。这一不算完整的信息如果属实,那将意味着我国的电力改革基本延续“增量”改革的思路。但是,不幸的是,在当前的环境下,这一改革方案的力度是远远不够的,并且没有体现改革的重点——输配环节,还蕴藏着不小的电价上涨风险。本文将就此进行一些初步的探讨。 If the reform does not touch on the separation of transmission and distribution, then not only the cost is still difficult to be clarified, the price of electricity is also risking rising up, but it is even more powerless to relieve the long-term dilemma of the electricity market and there is a risk that the reform will be aborted. Informal sources indicate that the draft electricity reform in our country will be based on the principle of “letting go of both ends and supervise the middle” and the government will no longer plan for a power generation project. If this incomplete information is true, it will mean that the power reform in our country will basically continue the idea of ​​“incremental” reform. However, unfortunately, under the current environment, the intensity of this reform program is far from adequate, and the key point of the reform, that is, the point of transmission and distribution, is still not enough. There is also no small risk of rising electricity prices. This article will do some preliminary discussion.