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本文通过构建资金循环流动理论模型,引入流动性螺旋机制,分析宏观流动性与资产价格波动之间的内在逻辑关系,并基于我国2009年四季度-2016年三季度房地产数据进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,宏观流动性变动对房地产价格具有很强的解释能力,房价产价格波动的实质是流动性结构失衡、流动性总量失控和市场情绪失度;研究结论进一步表明流动性螺旋机制影响了房地产市场。根据上述研究结论,对传统货币政策框架中的货币数量方程和菲利普斯曲线进行扩展,建立了货币政策理论新框架,探讨了宏观流动性、资产价格、实体经济之间的关系。新的理论框架表明,资产价格对产出确实有影响,具有明显的挤出效应,货币政策在关注实体经济稳定的同时应该关注资产价格的稳定。
This paper constructs the theoretical model of capital circulation flow, introduces the spiral mechanism of liquidity, analyzes the inherent logical relationship between macro liquidity and asset price volatility, and conducts empirical tests based on the real estate data from the fourth quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2016 in our country. The results show that the change of macro-liquidity has strong explanatory power on the price of real estate. The essence of the price fluctuation is the unbalance of liquidity structure, the loss of total liquidity and the loss of market sentiment. The conclusion of the study further shows that liquidity spiral mechanism The real estate market. According to the conclusion of the above research, we expand the monetary quantity equation and Phillips curve in the traditional monetary policy framework, establish a new framework of monetary policy theory, and discuss the relationship between macro liquidity, asset price and real economy. The new theoretical framework shows that asset prices do have an impact on output and have obvious crowding-out effects. Monetary policies should pay attention to the stability of asset prices while paying attention to the stability of the real economy.