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利用PVAR模型对我国东部地区11个省(市)1996—2012年的文化消费、公共财政投入与文化产业发展的动态关系进行研究。结果表明,在短期内,公共财政投入对文化产业发展的促进作用大于文化消费,但公共财政投入对文化产业发展的正向影响随着时间推移趋于减弱;长期而言,文化消费对文化产业增加值将产生正向促进作用,但存在一定的时滞;文化事业费的增长对文化消费支出的增加会产生一定程度的“挤出效应”。
Using the PVAR model, the dynamic relationship between cultural consumption, public finance input and cultural industry development in 11 provinces (cities) in eastern China from 1996 to 2012 was studied. The results show that, in the short term, the public finance input has more effect on the development of cultural industry than cultural consumption, but the positive influence of public financial investment on the development of cultural industry tends to weaken with the passage of time. In the long run, the influence of cultural consumption on cultural industry The added value will have a positive promotion effect, but there will be some time lag. The increase of cultural business expenses will have a certain degree of crowding-out effect on the increase of cultural consumption expenditure.