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本文借助一个两部门新古典增长模型,从理论角度揭示了经济基本面与房价之间的关系。分析表明,住房生产在要素密集度、技术进步率上的行业特点,决定了真实房价呈现出上升的长期趋势;在短期中,真实房价增长率与真实利率存在反向联动关系,真实利率越低,真实房价增速越高。这一理论预测与现有文献以及本文所观察到的经验证据相一致,也易于理解我国近十年来房价表现背后的原因,继而判断出我国未来无论短期还是长期,真实房价的增速都将下降。
With a neoclassical growth model of two departments, this paper reveals the relationship between economic fundamentals and housing prices from a theoretical perspective. The analysis shows that the industry characteristics of housing production in terms of factor intensity and technological progress rate determine the long-term trend of real housing prices rising. In the short run, there is a reverse linkage between the real housing price growth rate and the real interest rate, and the lower the real interest rate , The real house price growth higher. This theoretical prediction is consistent with the existing literature and the empirical evidence observed in this article. It is also easy to understand the reasons behind the housing price performance in the past ten years in our country, and then judge that the growth rate of real housing prices will decline in both short and long term in the future .