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以兑美元即期汇率与NDF汇率的差额作为人民币升贬值预期的计量指标,可以看出:2005年7月21日汇率改革以来,人民币升值预期持续存在,已成为矫正我国内外失衡的一大障碍.实证分析显示,升值预期的形成原因不在于我国经济的快速增长,也不在于物价、利率和货币供给,而在于本来水平就低却还在持续下降的单位产出劳动力成本.因此,为了实现我国宏观经济的均衡运行,必须采取有效措施,尽快提高劳动报酬和国民收入中的居民收入占比.“,”Taking the difference between spot and NDF of RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar as the measurement indicators, it shows that the appreciation expectation has been persistent since July 21, 2005. It has become a major obstacle to redress the domestic and external disequilibrium. Empirical analysis reveals that the formation of appreciation expectation is not because of China's rapid economy growth, nor the price, interest rate and money supply, but the declining unit labor costs on the low level. For the equilibrium operation of China's macroeconomy, it is necessary to take effective measures improve worker's remuneration and its proportion to national income.