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在美国经济增长急剧减速、欧洲经济不断放慢和亚洲经济困难重重的压力之下,今年前三季度国际国内的铜价节节败退。LME三个月期货铜价由年初最高的1844美元/吨下跌到3季度末的1450美元/吨附近,国内三个月期货价格则由18000多元/吨下跌到3季度末的15000元/吨以下,跌幅不小。预计今年前三个季度LME期铜的平均价格为1646美元/吨,国内为16500元/吨。 一、经济持续恶化 需求前景堪忧 原来我们估计铜价将在3季度末或4季度初到达本轮周期的低点,也就是熊市的结束,然后缓慢回升,当时的主要依据是美国经济可能在3季度出现转
Under the rapid economic slowdown in the United States, the continuous slowdown of European economy and the heavy economic pressure in Asia, the prices of copper in the domestic and international markets retreated in the first three quarters of this year. The three-month LME copper price dropped to about 1,450 U.S. dollars / ton at the end of the third quarter from the highest of 1,844 U.S. dollars / ton at the beginning of the year. The domestic three-month futures price dropped from over 18,000 yuan / ton to 15,000 yuan / ton at the end of the third quarter, The decline is not small. It is estimated that the average price of LME copper for the first three quarters of this year will be US $ 1646 / tonne and that in China will be 16,500 yuan / tonne. First, the economy continues to worsen prospects for the worrying We originally estimated that the price of copper will reach the end of the current cycle in the third quarter or early Q4, which is the end of the bear market, and then slowly picked up mainly when the U.S. economy may be in the third quarter Appear turn