论文部分内容阅读
文章预测了我国民用无人机发展前景。我国民用无人机市场正处于快速增长阶段,需求空间巨大,未来市场发展前景十分可观。本文采用基于灰色理论的预测方法,首先对我国无人机市场规模进行分析,使其符合使用灰色预测模型的条件,然后利用灰色理论的CM(1,1)预测模型,运用一次累加生成数列拟合微分方程,得到相关参数及预测方程,进而得到预测值,最后进行精度检验,将所得数据作为2017年至2020年我国无人机市场规模的预测值。基于我国民用无人机的市场规模预测结果及市场规模逐年增长率,并根据全球民用无人机中消费类无人机和专业类无人机的市场构成比例,分别预测了我国两类民用无人机的市场规模。
The article predicted the development prospect of civil UAV in our country. China’s civil UAV market is in a phase of rapid growth, huge demand for space, the future market prospects are impressive. In this paper, a forecasting method based on gray theory is used. Firstly, the market size of UAV in China is analyzed to meet the condition of using gray forecasting model. Then using CM (1,1) forecasting model of gray theory, The differential equations are obtained, the relevant parameters and prediction equations are obtained, and then the predicted values are obtained. Finally, the accuracy test is carried out and the obtained data are used as the forecast value of the market size of UAVs in our country from 2017 to 2020. Based on the predicted market size of China’s civil unmanned aerial vehicles and the annual growth rate of market size, and according to the market proportions of consumer UAVs and professional UAVs in the global civil UAVs, Man-machine market size.