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房价与失业率是社会稳定与经济波动的主要振荡源,已引起政府部门的高度关注。文章以香港为例,通过协整分析和VAR模型,对房价与失业率的关联性进行实证检验。结果显示,房价与失业率存在关联,房价对失业率会产生显著影响,且房价对失业率的短期效用为负,长期效应为正;而失业率对房价的影响作用微弱。为维持房价稳定和保证充分就业,政府应采取相应的政策措施。
Housing prices and the unemployment rate are the main source of oscillation in social stability and economic fluctuations. These have drawn great attention from government departments. Taking Hong Kong as an example, the article conducts empirical tests on the correlation between house prices and unemployment rate through cointegration analysis and VAR model. The results show that there is a correlation between housing prices and unemployment rate, housing prices will have a significant impact on the unemployment rate, and the short-term utility of the unemployment rate on the housing market is negative, long-term effects are positive; and the impact of unemployment on housing prices weak. In order to maintain stable housing prices and ensure full employment, the government should adopt appropriate policies and measures.