本文从研究流域上大中型水库及小水库群(包括据堰)在防洪、灌溉、发电中的调蓄作用及运用基本规律出发。在天然流域产汇流预报原理基础上。提出了一套考虑上游水利水电工程影响的产流预报方法。该法应用于广东枫树坝流域,使产流预报方案的合格率从85.1％提高到91.7％,并克服了原方案在汛初及久旱后预报洪水的产流量远远偏大的问题。 This article starts from studying the regulation and control of large and medium-sized reservoirs and small reservoirs (including weirs) in flood control, irrigation and power generation in the basin and the basic rules of their application. On the basis of the principle of forecasting the convergence of natural river basins. A set of production flow forecasting method considering the influence of the upstream water conservancy and hydropower project is proposed. This method is applied to Fengshuba dam in Guangdong Province, which improves the pass rate of runoff forecasting scheme from 85.1% to 91.7%, and overcomes the problem that the flooding of the original scheme is far too large to predict the flooding in early flood season and long drought.