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论述了油气田开发系统的非线性特征，特别是描述系统变化的产量指标在整个开发过程中的非线性．认为油气田累积产量随时间呈不对称“Ｓ”型有限增长；并基于不对称有限增长信息的微分方程，提出了一种预测油气田产量的功能模拟模型及其相应的参数求解方法．同时，文章还对油气田产量兴衰的四个阶段，以及油气田瞬时产量和年产量的关系进行了研究．模型从系统辨识理论和控制论的观点出发，从时间流中考察油气田产量系统的非线性特征，具有多功能性．它不但可以预测油气田的累积产量、瞬时产量和年产量，而且可以预测油气田的可采储量，同时还可以预测最高瞬时产量、最高年产量及其发生时间与相应时刻的累积产量，还可预测年产量与瞬时产量兴衰过程的时间界线．经实例验证表明，模型具有很好的适用性和有效性．
The non-linear characteristics of the oil and gas field development system are discussed, especially the non-linearity of the production index describing the system change in the whole development process. It is considered that the cumulated yield of oil and gas field shows asymmetric “S” growth with time. Based on the differential equation of asymmetric finite growth information, a functional simulation model for predicting oil and gas field output and its corresponding parameter solving method are proposed. At the same time, the paper also studies the relationship between the four stages of the rise and fall of the oil and gas fields and the relationship between the instantaneous output and the annual output of the oil and gas fields. From the perspective of system identification theory and cybernetics, the model examines the nonlinear characteristics of oil and gas field production systems from time-flow and is multifunctional. It can not only predict the cumulative output, instantaneous output and annual output of oil and gas fields, but also can predict the recoverable reserves of oil and gas fields, and at the same time, it can forecast the highest instantaneous output, the highest annual output, its occurrence time and the cumulative output at the corresponding moment, The time line between the production and the rise and fall of instantaneous output. The example shows that the model has good applicability and validity.