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本文在生命周期假说的基础上,利用2002—2012年的房地产价格指数和居民消费以及人均收入的年度数据,构造了房地产财富效应模型,研究了房地产价格对城镇居民人均消费的影响。研究结果表明,随着中国经济增长和居民收入的增加,房地产财富对居民消费的影响不断增强,但中国房地产市场还不具有明显的财富效应。通过实证分析可知,对于利用房地产市场来刺激我国居民消费是不现实的,需要通过不断地完善和规范房地产市场,增强消费者的消费信心来提高居民的消费水平。
Based on the life-cycle hypothesis, this paper constructs the real estate wealth effect model by using annual real estate price index, household consumption and per capita income from 2002 to 2012, and studies the effect of real estate price on the per capita consumption of urban residents. The results show that with the growth of China’s economy and the increase of residents’ income, the impact of real estate wealth on household consumption continues to increase. However, the real estate market in China still does not have obvious wealth effect. Through empirical analysis, it is unrealistic to use the real estate market to stimulate the consumption of residents in our country. It is necessary to improve the consumption level of residents by constantly improving and standardizing the real estate market and enhancing consumer confidence.