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本文介绍了研究滑坡灾害评估的可信的统计模型。模型是基于信息论和回归分析建立起来的。信息论是概率论的一个分支,最为显著的特征是其不可预测性。回归分析建立在简单的统计学理论基础上。作者采用这两种方法预测了边坡的不稳定性,以便其结果相互佐证。作者设计了用于评价滑坡灾害的Fortran77程序软件,考虑了影响边坡不稳定的诸因素,以及该地区以往的滑坡历史,将之作为输入文件。用该程序计算了地区的信息值和回归值,以此将该地区划分成不稳定性程度不等的区域。本文研究了印度加瓦尔喜马拉雅山地区Alkananda山谷一块面积为66km~2的地区,并做了滑坡灾害评估。所考虑因素有坡角、高程、岩性、地质构造(褶皱、逆冲断层)。根据研究结果编制了滑坡灾害图,并将上述两种方法的预测结果作了对比。
This article presents a credible statistical model for studying landslide hazard assessment. The model is based on information theory and regression analysis. Information theory is a branch of probability theory, the most notable feature is its unpredictability. Regression analysis is based on simple statistical theory. The authors use both of these methods to predict the instability of the slope so that its results corroborate each other. The authors have designed Fortran 77 software to evaluate landslide hazards, taking into consideration factors affecting the instability of the slope, as well as past landslide history in the area as input documents. The program calculates the regional information values and regression values to divide the region into regions of varying degrees of instability. In this paper, an area of 66km ~ 2 in the Alkananda valley in the Himalayas, Gwalv, India, is studied and a landslide hazard assessment is made. Considered slope angle, elevation, lithology, geological structure (fold, thrust fault). According to the results of the study, landslide hazard maps were compiled and the prediction results of the above two methods were compared.