在美国9月11日遭受恐怖袭击后,经济界人士对美国及全球经济前景众说纷纭。对此,美国摩根士丹利公司首席经济学家罗奇作出了比一般人更为保守的预测。他认为,9·11事件将冲击美国消费者的信心,影响全球经济一体化,并导致美国经济于2001年陷人衰退。 罗奇说,分析突发事故,包括如此巨大灾难的影响,往往必须视事件的来龙去脉而定。当经济蓬勃发展时,事件的负面影响可拖慢经济增长步伐,但若碰上经济停滞不前时,便可导致经济步人衰退。摩根土丹利以后者作为分析的基础,对美国及全球经济的预测较市场一般预期为低,并据此提出3个论点,剖析9·11事件如何影响全球金融市场的经济基础。 首先,恐怖袭击严重冲击美国消费者的信心。在目前的经济下跌周期中,美国消费者的信心一直未受到太大动摇,但现在情况已经发生逆转。美国消费者已开始面对储蓄减少、债务 After the U.S. terrorist attacks on September 11, economists have different opinions on the economic outlook of the United States and the rest of the world. In response, the United States chief Morgan Stanley Roach made more conservative than the average forecast. In his view, the September 11 incident will impact the confidence of U.S. consumers, affect the global economic integration and lead to a recession in the U.S. economy in 2001. Roach said the analysis of unexpected incidents, including the effects of such a catastrophic disaster, often must be contingent on the sequence of events. When the economy is booming, the negative impact of the events can slow down the pace of economic growth. However, when the economy stagnates, it can lead to economic recession. Morgan Stanley as the basis for the analysis, the United States and the global economy forecast than the market generally expected to be low, and accordingly put forward three arguments on how Sept. 11 incident affects the economic fundamentals of global financial markets. First, the terrorist attacks have a serious impact on the confidence of U.S. consumers. In the current economic downturn cycle, the confidence of U.S. consumers has not been greatly shaken, but the situation has now reversed. U.S. consumers have begun to face savings and debt