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为深入研究降水时空分布特性,以便为流域水资源合理配置提供科学依据,以广东省东江流域内32个代表雨量站1956～2009年月降雨量资料为例,根据泰森多边形法计算四个子区间的面雨量,采用边际插值函数法(IFM)估计Copula函数参数,通过AIC信息准则确定研究时段内任意两相邻区间面雨量指标的联合分布。结合历史雨量极值组合所对应的重现期计算结果表明,东江流域降水时空分布不均匀,前汛期时段流域水资源状况较为安全,流域上游水资源状况也较为安全,后汛期与枯季时段流域下游水资源状况最为严峻。基于Copula函数方法与传统面雨量频率分析方法相比,能更全面地反映降水的分布特征。
In order to further study the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation in order to provide a scientific basis for rational allocation of water resources in the basin, taking monthly precipitation data of 32 representative rainfall stations in Guangdong Province from 1956 to 2009 as an example, according to the Thiessen polygon method, four sub-intervals , The parameters of Copula function are estimated by the marginal interpolation function (IFM) method. The joint distribution of rainfall indices of any two adjacent zones in the study period is determined by AIC information criterion. According to the calculation results of the return period corresponding to the extreme rainfall combination, the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in the Dongjiang River Basin is not uniform, the water resources in the drainage basin are safer in the first flood season and the water resources in the upper reaches are safer. The water resources situation is the most serious downstream. Compared with the traditional method of surface rainfall frequency analysis, the Copula function method can reflect the distribution of precipitation more fully.