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影响玉米螟成虫高峰期的主要因子是温度、湿度和降雨量,各虫态历期与温度的关系呈‘S’形曲线。本文依据上海多年玉米螟数量消长资料及其主要影响因子,按多元回归法算出越冬代成虫高峰期预测式:y=101.1467-3.3322x_1-0.2068x_2+0.1706x_3±1.1165;第一代成虫高峰期预测式:y=128.6131-3.6286x_1+0.0124x_2+0.3177x_3±1.2227;第二代成虫高峰期预测式:y=1.4080x_1-0.0273x_2+0.5214x_3-13.6082±1.071。经1983—1985年多点应用,预测式的准确率达81.3—87.5％。
The main factors influencing the peak period of corn borer adults were temperature, humidity and rainfall. The relationship between the temperature and the duration of each worm stage showed a ’S’ curve. Based on the data of the population growth and decline of maize borer over the years in Shanghai and its main influence factors, the prediction formula of the peak of overwintering adults was calculated by multiple regression analysis: y = 101.1467-3.3322x_1-0.2068x_2 + 0.1706x_3 ± 1.1165; The formula: y = 128.6131-3.6286x_1 + 0.0124x_2 + 0.3177x_3 ± 1.2227; The prediction formula of the second generation adult peak: y = 1.4080x_1-0.0273x_2 + 0.5214x_3-13.6082 ± 1.071. By 1983-1985 multi-point application, the prediction accuracy of 81.3-87.5%.