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基于某型飞机年度故障数量的历史数据,运用灰色系统理论建立了GM(1,1)模型,对该飞机年度故障数量进行预测,并对模型精确度进行了验证。结果表明,所建的模型准确、有效,可以为飞机未来几年的故障数量预测提高有效的参考。
Based on the historical data of the number of annual failures of a certain type of aircraft, a GM (1,1) model was established by using gray system theory to predict the annual number of aircraft failures and the model accuracy was verified. The results show that the proposed model is accurate and effective and can provide an effective reference for forecasting the number of aircraft failures in the coming years.