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基于MRIO模型并采用WIOD提供数据,计算得到1995~2009年中国GVC地位指数和参与度指数以及对外贸易隐含碳排放量,以考察中国参与GVC分工对贸易隐含碳排放的影响。研究表明,中国整体GVC地位有所改善,但较低的分工地位会使中国产生较高的贸易隐含碳排放水平,且随着参与GVC分工逐渐深入,贸易隐含碳排放规模也会随之扩大;中间品贸易隐含碳排放占比逐渐提升与中国逐渐深入地融入到GVC分工体系有关;中国重制造业主要处于GVC的下游环节,其出口隐含碳排放也随着GVC参与程度逐渐提升呈现出上升趋势;在GVC分工下,中国贸易隐含碳排放水平的提升反映出贸易利益与环境利益存在一定冲突,但贸易引起的环境代价正在逐渐降低,与GVC分工地位的逐渐改善相一致。最后,从转变外贸发展模式、推进制造业转型升级、鼓励服务业出口以及主导区域价值链等方面就如何在GVC分工趋势下实现碳减排目标提出政策建议。
Based on the MRIO model and using WIOD data, we calculated the GVC status index and participation index of China from 1995 to 2009 and the implied carbon emissions of foreign trade in order to examine the impact of China’s participation in GVC’s labor division on trade-related implicit carbon emissions. Research shows that overall GVC status in China has been improved, but a lower division of labor position will result in a higher level of trade implied carbon emissions in China. With the gradual deepening of the GVC division of labor participation, the scale of trade implied carbon emissions will follow The share of implicit carbon emissions in intermediate trade gradually increased, which is closely related to China’s gradual integration into the GVC division of labor system. China’s heavy manufacturing industry is mainly located in the downstream part of GVC. Implicit carbon emissions from exports also gradually increase with GVC participation Showing an upward trend; under the GVC division of labor, the increase of the implied carbon emission level of China’s trade reflects that there is a certain conflict between trade interests and environmental interests. However, the trade-induced environmental costs are gradually decreasing and are in line with the gradual improvement of GVC’s division of labor status. Finally, some policy proposals on how to achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction under the trend of GVC division of labor are put forward from changing the development mode of foreign trade, promoting the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, encouraging the export of service industry and leading the regional value chain.