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目的了解2004-2013年菌痢流行特征,预测2014年10月-2015年9月菌痢月发病率。方法采用描述性流行病学方法对2004-2013年天津市和平区菌痢发病情况进行分析,利用自回归求和移动平均(ARIMA)模型对2014年10月-2015年9月菌痢发病率进行预测分析。结果 2004-2013年和平区共报告菌痢2 242例,平均年发病率为66.33/10万,男性发病率高于女性,0~9岁儿童发病率最高;发病主要集中在7-8月;白楼街平均发病率高于其他各街道。病例以学生、干部职员和离退修人员为主。构建ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)模型的预测结果显示,2014年10月-2015年9月菌痢发病稳定地处于较低水平,7月菌痢发病达高峰,月发病率为3.27/10万,流行趋势图与近10年的一致。结论和平区菌痢疫情呈逐渐下降趋势,近年来已处于较低水平稳定状态,发病有明显季节性,儿童为高发人群,ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)模型在菌痢发病率预测中显示了较好的精度。
Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of dysentery from 2004 to 2013 and predict the incidence of dysentery in October 2014-September 2015. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the incidence of dysentery in Heping District of Tianjin from 2004 to 2013. The incidence of dysentery from October 2014 to September 2015 was analyzed by the autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model. Predictive analysis. Results A total of 2 242 cases of bacillary dysentery were reported in Heping district from 2004 to 2013, with an average annual incidence rate of 66.33 / 100 000. The incidence rate of malaria was higher in males than in females, with the highest incidence rate in children aged 0-9. The incidence mainly concentrated in July to August. The average incidence of White House Street is higher than other streets. Cases of students, cadres and retired staff mainly. The prediction results of ARIMA (1,1,0) (1,1,0) model showed that the incidence of dysentery was stable at a low level from October 2014 to September 2015, and the incidence of dysentery reached a peak in July. The incidence was 3.27 / 100,000, the trend of the trend line with the past 10 years. Conclusions The epidemic situation of bacillary dysenteriae in Heping District shows a gradual downward trend and has been at a relatively low level of stability in recent years. The incidence of seasonal bacillary dysentery is very high and children are high-risk individuals. ARIMA (1,1,0) (1,1,0) The incidence of dysentery showed better accuracy in the prediction.