当去年7月份多数人还在质疑中国房地产市场回升的可持续性时,我们就预测到了房价泡沫的形成,并指出这次泡沫的严重程度要超过2007年(见野村报告《中国房地产的惊人反弹》,2009年7月2日)。此后的变化证实了我们的预期。房价一路高涨,最终促使政府在今年4月份出台了十年来最严厉的紧缩政策。受政策影响,交易量已开始出现暴跌,而房 When most were still questioning the sustainability of the recovery in China’s real estate market in July last year, we predicted the housing bubble and pointed out that the bubble was more serious than in 2007 (see Nomura’s report “Astonishing Real Estate Rebound in China” ", July 2, 2009). Subsequent changes confirm our expectation. The hikes in housing prices eventually led the government to introduce the most severe austerity policy in 10 years in April this year. Affected by the policy, trading volume has started to plunge, while housing