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本文利用2002-2013年经济和气象的历史数据,分析了北京市各行业经济产出对气象因素变化的敏感性。通过改进Cobb-Douglas(C-D)生产函数这一计量经济模型,建立了气象因素变化和行业经济产出之间的数量因果关系;采用岭回归模型对北京市的行业经济-气象系统要素进行分析,得到了北京市各行业对气象条件的敏感性排名。即,建筑业、批发零售业和金融业对气象条件变化表现出高敏感性,而农业对气象条件变化的敏感性最低;从高到低依次为建筑业(0.4995)、批发与零售业(0.4176)、金融业(0.2933)、交通运输仓储和邮政业(0.2806)、工业(0.2799)、住宿和餐饮业(0.2710)、卫生与社会保障和社会福利业(0.2691)、文化体育和娱乐业(0.2607)、农业(0.2537)。通过度量行业经济对气象因素变化的敏感性大小,有利于北京政府理解这些影响并科学地进行产业结构调整和资源格局优化。研究结果表明,岭回归获得的结果更加符合北京市行业经济发展的实际情况。
Based on the historical data of economy and meteorology from 2002 to 2013, this paper analyzes the sensitivity of economic output of various industries in Beijing to the change of meteorological factors. By improving the econometric model of Cobb-Douglas (CD) production function, this paper establishes a quantitative causal relationship between the change of meteorological factors and the economic output of the industry. Using the ridge regression model to analyze the industrial economic-meteorological system elements in Beijing, Beijing has been the sensitivity of various industries on the meteorological rankings. That is, the construction industry, wholesale and retail industry and financial industry showed high sensitivity to changes in weather conditions, while agriculture had the lowest sensitivity to changes in weather conditions. From high to low, construction industry (0.4995), wholesale and retail industry (0.4176 ), Finance (0.2933), transportation and storage and postal services (0.2806), industry (0.2799), accommodation and catering (0.2710), health and social security and social welfare (0.2691), culture, sports and entertainment (0.2607 ), Agriculture (0.2537). By measuring the sensitivity of the industrial economy to changes in meteorological factors, it is in favor of the Beijing government to understand these impacts and to scientifically carry out industrial restructuring and resource optimization. The results show that the results obtained by ridge regression more in line with the actual situation of Beijing’s industrial economic development.