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住房抵押贷款为中国经济的持续增长增添了新的动力,随着规模扩大,其信用风险问题已经引起金融机构、政府部门及学者的关注.在分析中国房地产市场特点的基础上研究了适应中国住房抵押贷款违约的理论以及影响住房抵押贷款违约的因素,并通过采集大连市的数据进行了实证分析,首次运用实际数据来比选适应中国市场的理论模型.我们的研究发现:在中国住房抵押贷款市场上,贷款违约的还款能力理论较之于期权理论有着更好的适应性;利率、LTV、偿债比与户籍是影响住房抵押贷款违约的主要因素;也得出另外几个不同于理论假说的结论:家庭收入对借款人违约的影响力不明显,购买二手住房的借款人的违约概率要比新房高.
With the expansion of scale, the issue of credit risk has drawn the attention of financial institutions, government departments and academics.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of China’s real estate market, this paper studies how to adapt to China’s housing market The theory of mortgage loan default and the factors that affect the default of home mortgages, and conducted an empirical analysis by collecting the data of Dalian City, for the first time using the actual data to select the theoretical model to adapt to the Chinese market.Our study found that in China’s housing mortgage loan On the market, loan repayment default theory has a better adaptability than option theory. Interest rates, LTV, debt-service ratio and household registration are the main factors that affect the default of home-equity loan. Other factors that differ from the theory Hypothesis conclusion: The impact of family income on the default of borrower is not obvious, and the probability of default of borrowers buying second-hand housing is higher than that of new house.