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为准确、高效地进行台风多发地区建筑结构设计风速的预测,利用中国东南沿海1949—2012年的台风历史数据进行了香港地区台风关键参数概率分布的研究,提出了基于新的Holland径向气压分布参数B表达式的台风风场经验模型.在此基础上结合Monte Carlo数值模拟技术,利用台风极值风速分析方法完成了不同重现期下香港地区台风极值风速的预测,并与观测数据、香港风荷载规范计算结果进行对比分析,验证了利用此台风风场经验模型进行台风极值风速预测的有效性.
In order to accurately and efficiently predict the wind speed of structural design in typhoon-prone areas, the probability distribution of the key parameters of typhoon in Hong Kong was studied using the historical data of typhoon from 1949 to 2012 in the southeast coast of China. Based on the new Holland radial pressure distribution Based on this, combined with Monte Carlo numerical simulation technique, the typhoon extreme wind velocity analysis method is used to forecast the typhoon’s extreme wind speed under different recurrence periods. The forecasting results are compared with the observed data, The comparative analysis of the calculation results of wind load specifications in Hong Kong validates the effectiveness of using this typhoon wind field empirical model to predict the typhoon extreme wind speed.