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2013年6月以来,美国量化宽松货币政策(QE)逐渐退出的预期在加强,2014年1月的美联储会议再次强化了该预期,按照该会议的精神,美联储未来将逐步缩减债券购买规模,按照每个月减少100亿美元的计划,半年后美联储将中止购买债券的行为。美国退出QE对全球金融市场的影响已经显现,不少新兴市场国家出现了货币贬值、资本外逃、股价下跌等不良反应。尽管美国货币政策调整对中国的影响暂时还没有显现出来,但中长期影响不可忽视。最需要关注的是中国内地和香港的房地产市场,笔者认为,QE政策退出可能会导致内地和香港房价、地价持续下跌,从而引发商业银行不良率上升及其他金融“次生灾害”。
Expectations of a gradual withdrawal of the US QE from June 2013 have been strengthened and the Fed meeting once again reinforced the expectation in January 2014. In the spirit of the meeting, the Fed will gradually reduce the scale of bond purchases in the future in accordance with Each month to reduce the $ 10 billion plan, six months after the Federal Reserve will suspend the purchase of bonds. The effect of the withdrawal of the United States from QE on global financial markets has emerged. Many emerging market countries have experienced such adverse reactions as currency devaluation, capital flight and stock price declines. Although the impact of the U.S. monetary policy adjustment on China has not yet emerged, the medium and long-term effects can not be ignored. What needs most attention is the real estate market in mainland China and Hong Kong. According to the author, the exit of QE policy may lead to the continuous decline of house prices and land prices in the Mainland and Hong Kong, which will lead to the rise in the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks and other secondary disasters.