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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved the House of Representatives， or the lower house in the country’s bicameral parliament， on November 21. A consequent snap election will be held on December 14， two years ahead of schedule.
In recent months， the Japanese economy has continued to slide and entered a technical recession. Abe， who came to power in late 2012 with a pledge to reinvigorate the economy， has been unable to put a stop to the public’s declining support for his administration. Worse still， after a reshuffling of the cabinet in September， scandals involving several heavyweight ministers were exposed to the public in succession. Subsequently， Abe is fully aware of the challenges facing the ruling Liberal Democratic Party（LDP） ahead of the parliament election that was originally scheduled to be carried out in 2016.
If the election is held in mid-December， Abe and his ruling coalition are still expected to be victorious due to the weakness of the opposition—a win that would prolong his ruling position to 2018.
Economic woes
Abe launched an ambitious economic plan， known as “Abenomics，” two years ago when he became prime minister. He promised that his plan， mainly consisting of an aggressive monetary policy， a proactive fiscal policy and structural reforms， would make Japan’s economy recover in the summer of 2014. However， the results have not aligned with Abe’s optimistic expectations. Current economic data shows that Abe’s cabinet cannot meet the goal.
The Japanese economy has continually slowed since a rise in the sales tax in April， from 5 percent to 8 percent. Japan’s GDP growth rate in the second quarter was minus 7.1 percent and in the third quarter was minus 1.6 percent. According to economics theory， negative GDP growth over two consecutive quarters indicates a recession.
The growth forecast for the Japanese economy has been revised downward from 1 percent to 0.5 percent by Japan’s central bank. Many Japanese people have lost confidence in Abe’s economic agenda. A poll conducted by The Asahi Shimbun， a widely read Japanese daily newspaper， indicated that 45 percent of the correspondents did not expect Abenomics to bring growth and one third of them said that they did not benefit from current policies.
Nomura Securities， a renowned Japanese financial services group， has also lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2015 from 1.7 percent to 0.8 percent.
Given this economic data， Japan’s economic outlook is not optimistic for the next two years. If this trend cannot be reversed， it’s very likely that the LDP will lose its ruling status in the next parliamentary election. Japan’s legislative body comprises the upper House of Councilors and the lower House of Representatives. Comparatively， the 480-seat lower house is more powerful， able to override vetoes on bills imposed by the upper house with a two thirds majority.
Japan’s House of Representatives is elected for a term of four years. The tenure of the current crop of representatives lasts from December 2012 to December 2016. If the election of Japan’s lower house is held in December 2016 on schedule， Abe’s administration will likely lose support due to policy problems—a result that would be a crushing defeat for Abenomics. To avoid such an outcome， Abe dissolved the House of Representatives—a power that is given by the Japanese Constitution—aiming to gain an upper hand over ill-prepared opposition parties.
On November 20， Abe claimed that there were several important reasons behind the decision to dissolve the parliament. He said that he needs to reach out to voters as his administration prepares to tackle some difficult challenges next year. His policies will require the support of voters， including a new mandate for economic reforms and the delay of an unpopular increase in the sales tax to 10 percent， said Abe according to Japan’s broadcaster NHK.
These excuses are weak. If Abe wants to push his Abenomics or delay the second increase in the sales tax till October 2017， there is no obstacle in the parliament. The lower house is entirely under the control of the LDP. In the election of December 2012， the Abe-led LDP won victory by gaining a majority of 294 out of a total of 480 seats. Any policy initiative of Abe is able to pass in the parliament. Thus， dissolution of the parliament seems an unnecessary move， which is questioned by many representatives from both the LDP and parties out of power. For example， Local Revitalization Minister Shigeru Ishiba， who is also a powerful contender for the LDP’s leadership， said that Abe should clarify the reasons for the dissolution.
Real purposes
A very tactical arrangement lies behind Abe’s dissolution of the lower house.
Currently， Abe’s administration maintains a support rating of 40 to 50 percent， according to a poll conducted by local media. Unlike the LDP， other parties， including the major opposition Democratic Party of Japan， do not have enough time to organize effective election campaigns. Though it risks losing some seats in the parliament due to a gloomy economy， the LDP still have a large chance of winning the election. In that case， its ruling position will last until at least 2018， which， in turn， will secure Abe’s term as prime minister. Furthermore， Abe might hope to clear the stain of corruption from his cabinet and rebuild its reputation through the snap election.
In September， Abe reshuffled his cabinet. But soon the new cabinet was jolted by scandals involving Economy， Trade and Industry Minister yuko Obuchi and Justice Minister Midori Matsushima.
Obuchi’s political fund reports were found to have a large shortage totaling around tens of millions of yen for theater outings related to her cabinet appointee’s activities and money irregularly used to design an office and clothing shop run by her relatives.
In addition， a senior official of the Democratic Party of Japan has filed a criminal complaint with prosecutors against Matsushima for alleged election law violations.
Obuchi and Matsushima submitted resignation letters to Abe on October 20. On the same day， Abe appointed yoichi Miyazawa to replace Obuchi.
However， a political fund report from Miyazawa uncovered an expenditure of $170 at a bar that features sex shows. The report stated that the money was related to political activities. Though Miyazawa told Chief Cabinet Secretary yoshihide Suga that he didn’t attend the event， the press and the public have reason to continue investigating him and may uncover even more allegations. Undoubtedly， the Abe administration faces risks of falling approval ratings if it does not take measures.
Abe is skilled at using well-planned tactics to achieve political objectives. In the face of a sluggish recovery and political scandals， he must do something to save his struggling cabinet.
In Japan， if approval ratings remain low， a prime minister will inevitably step down from his post. Support is the lifeline of a Japanese prime minister. Abe is an ambitious politician. Though he has not managed to put forward effective strategies to stop the economy from sliding into recession， Abe can use unusual methods to maintain support. Hence， Abe’s decision to call a snap election at this time may be a shrewd political calculation.
In recent months， the Japanese economy has continued to slide and entered a technical recession. Abe， who came to power in late 2012 with a pledge to reinvigorate the economy， has been unable to put a stop to the public’s declining support for his administration. Worse still， after a reshuffling of the cabinet in September， scandals involving several heavyweight ministers were exposed to the public in succession. Subsequently， Abe is fully aware of the challenges facing the ruling Liberal Democratic Party（LDP） ahead of the parliament election that was originally scheduled to be carried out in 2016.
If the election is held in mid-December， Abe and his ruling coalition are still expected to be victorious due to the weakness of the opposition—a win that would prolong his ruling position to 2018.
Economic woes
Abe launched an ambitious economic plan， known as “Abenomics，” two years ago when he became prime minister. He promised that his plan， mainly consisting of an aggressive monetary policy， a proactive fiscal policy and structural reforms， would make Japan’s economy recover in the summer of 2014. However， the results have not aligned with Abe’s optimistic expectations. Current economic data shows that Abe’s cabinet cannot meet the goal.
The Japanese economy has continually slowed since a rise in the sales tax in April， from 5 percent to 8 percent. Japan’s GDP growth rate in the second quarter was minus 7.1 percent and in the third quarter was minus 1.6 percent. According to economics theory， negative GDP growth over two consecutive quarters indicates a recession.
The growth forecast for the Japanese economy has been revised downward from 1 percent to 0.5 percent by Japan’s central bank. Many Japanese people have lost confidence in Abe’s economic agenda. A poll conducted by The Asahi Shimbun， a widely read Japanese daily newspaper， indicated that 45 percent of the correspondents did not expect Abenomics to bring growth and one third of them said that they did not benefit from current policies.
Nomura Securities， a renowned Japanese financial services group， has also lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2015 from 1.7 percent to 0.8 percent.
Given this economic data， Japan’s economic outlook is not optimistic for the next two years. If this trend cannot be reversed， it’s very likely that the LDP will lose its ruling status in the next parliamentary election. Japan’s legislative body comprises the upper House of Councilors and the lower House of Representatives. Comparatively， the 480-seat lower house is more powerful， able to override vetoes on bills imposed by the upper house with a two thirds majority.
Japan’s House of Representatives is elected for a term of four years. The tenure of the current crop of representatives lasts from December 2012 to December 2016. If the election of Japan’s lower house is held in December 2016 on schedule， Abe’s administration will likely lose support due to policy problems—a result that would be a crushing defeat for Abenomics. To avoid such an outcome， Abe dissolved the House of Representatives—a power that is given by the Japanese Constitution—aiming to gain an upper hand over ill-prepared opposition parties.
On November 20， Abe claimed that there were several important reasons behind the decision to dissolve the parliament. He said that he needs to reach out to voters as his administration prepares to tackle some difficult challenges next year. His policies will require the support of voters， including a new mandate for economic reforms and the delay of an unpopular increase in the sales tax to 10 percent， said Abe according to Japan’s broadcaster NHK.
These excuses are weak. If Abe wants to push his Abenomics or delay the second increase in the sales tax till October 2017， there is no obstacle in the parliament. The lower house is entirely under the control of the LDP. In the election of December 2012， the Abe-led LDP won victory by gaining a majority of 294 out of a total of 480 seats. Any policy initiative of Abe is able to pass in the parliament. Thus， dissolution of the parliament seems an unnecessary move， which is questioned by many representatives from both the LDP and parties out of power. For example， Local Revitalization Minister Shigeru Ishiba， who is also a powerful contender for the LDP’s leadership， said that Abe should clarify the reasons for the dissolution.
Real purposes
A very tactical arrangement lies behind Abe’s dissolution of the lower house.
Currently， Abe’s administration maintains a support rating of 40 to 50 percent， according to a poll conducted by local media. Unlike the LDP， other parties， including the major opposition Democratic Party of Japan， do not have enough time to organize effective election campaigns. Though it risks losing some seats in the parliament due to a gloomy economy， the LDP still have a large chance of winning the election. In that case， its ruling position will last until at least 2018， which， in turn， will secure Abe’s term as prime minister. Furthermore， Abe might hope to clear the stain of corruption from his cabinet and rebuild its reputation through the snap election.
In September， Abe reshuffled his cabinet. But soon the new cabinet was jolted by scandals involving Economy， Trade and Industry Minister yuko Obuchi and Justice Minister Midori Matsushima.
Obuchi’s political fund reports were found to have a large shortage totaling around tens of millions of yen for theater outings related to her cabinet appointee’s activities and money irregularly used to design an office and clothing shop run by her relatives.
In addition， a senior official of the Democratic Party of Japan has filed a criminal complaint with prosecutors against Matsushima for alleged election law violations.
Obuchi and Matsushima submitted resignation letters to Abe on October 20. On the same day， Abe appointed yoichi Miyazawa to replace Obuchi.
However， a political fund report from Miyazawa uncovered an expenditure of $170 at a bar that features sex shows. The report stated that the money was related to political activities. Though Miyazawa told Chief Cabinet Secretary yoshihide Suga that he didn’t attend the event， the press and the public have reason to continue investigating him and may uncover even more allegations. Undoubtedly， the Abe administration faces risks of falling approval ratings if it does not take measures.
Abe is skilled at using well-planned tactics to achieve political objectives. In the face of a sluggish recovery and political scandals， he must do something to save his struggling cabinet.
In Japan， if approval ratings remain low， a prime minister will inevitably step down from his post. Support is the lifeline of a Japanese prime minister. Abe is an ambitious politician. Though he has not managed to put forward effective strategies to stop the economy from sliding into recession， Abe can use unusual methods to maintain support. Hence， Abe’s decision to call a snap election at this time may be a shrewd political calculation.