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本文以海伦县为样点,用自回归、周期图、方差分析等方法建立了作物产量预测的时序模型,并与积分回归法作了对比,二者预测趋势一致。通过周期分析发现,海伦县粮食作物产量的丰欠有4—7年及12—13年明显的准周期振动,利用时序模型预测作物产量取得了一定的良好效果,年景展望和气候趋势预测有一定的一致性。
In this paper, Helen County is taken as a sample and the time series model of crop yield prediction is set up by means of autoregressive, periodic charts and analysis of variance, and compared with the integral regression method, the forecasting trend of the two is consistent. Through periodic analysis, it is found that the crop yield in Helen County has significant quasi-periodic oscillations of 4 to 7 years and 12 to 13 years. Using the time series model to predict crop yields has achieved some good results. The outlook for the year and the prediction of climate trends are A certain consistency.